Preliminary 2020 exit poll analysis

Here I present the results of some simple analyses of the (preliminary) 2020 presidential election national exit polls from the New York Times. First I use each category of exit poll questions to calculate the % of the overall popular vote going to either Trump or Biden.

Gender

Male: 47% of voters, Trump 49%, Biden 48%

Trump gets 23.03% of the vote from men and Biden gets 22.56%.

Female: 53% of voters, Trump 43%, Biden 56%

Trump gets 22.79% of the vote from women and Biden gets 29.68%.

Based on gender, Trump is therefore predicted to get 23.03+22.79=45.82% of the national popular vote and Biden is predicted to get 22.56+29.68=52.24%.

Gender exit poll-based national popular vote prediction

Biden 52.24%

Trump 45.82%

Other 1.94%

Race/ethnicity

White: 65% of voters, Trump 57%, Biden 42%

Black: 12% of voters, Trump 12%, Biden 87%

Hispanic/Latino: 13% of voters, Trump 32%, Biden 66%

Asian: 3% of voters, Trump 31%, Biden 63%

Other: 6% of voters, Trump 40%, Biden 58%

White voters gave Trump 37.05% of the vote and Biden 27.30%.

Black voters gave Trump 1.44% of the vote and Biden 10.44%.

Hispanic/Latino voters gave Trump 4.16% of the vote and Biden 8.58%.

Asian voters gave Trump 0.93% of the vote and Biden 1.89%.

Other race/ethnicity voters gave Trump 2.40% of the vote and Biden 3.48%.

Biden: 27.30+10.44+8.58+1.89+3.48 = 51.69%

Trump: 37.05+1.44+4.16+0.93+2.40 = 45.98%

Race/ethnicity exit poll-based national popular vote prediction

Biden: 51.69%

Trump: 45.98%

Other: 2.33%

Age

Voters aged 18–29: 17% of voters, Biden 62%, Trump 35%

Voters aged 30–44: 24% of voters, Biden 52%, Trump 45%

Voters aged 45–64: 38% of voters, Biden 50%, Trump 49%

Voters 65 or over: 22% of voters, Trump 51%, Biden 48%

Based on age exit polls, Biden would be expected to receive 10.54+12.48+19+10.56=52.58% of the vote, while Trump would be expected to receive 5.95+10.8+18.62+11.22=46.59% of the vote.

Age exit poll-based national popular vote prediction

Biden: 52.58%

Trump: 46.59%

Other: 0.83%

To recap: gender, race/ethnicity, and age-based exit polls predict that Biden would get 52.24%, 51.69%, and 52.58% of the national popular vote, respectively. These polls also predict that Trump would get 45.82%, 45.98%, and 46.59% of the national popular vote, and that all other candidates combined would get 1.94%, 2.33%, and 0.83% of the vote, respectively.