Comparing 2020 Democratic Senate candidates’ and Biden’s performances

In the states with Senate races this year, Biden did better than the Democratic Senate candidate in the following states:

• Alaska, Colorado, Georgia, Illinois, Louisiana, Maine, Michigan, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia, Wyoming

By contrast, Biden did worse than the Democratic candidate in the following states:

• Alabama, Arizona, Delaware, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Montana, New Hampshire, Oklahoma, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Virginia

Below I will discuss the relative performances of Biden and Democratic Senate candidates for each state with a Senate race this year, listing the states in alphabetical order. I am skipping Arkansas because there was no Democratic candidate running in that Senate race (just a Republican and a Libertarian).

• Alabama: Democrat Doug Jones got 39.7% of the vote in Alabama, compared to 60.1% for Republican Tommy Tuberville. Jones did have the advantage of incumbency, which Biden did not. That being said, Biden did noticeably worse in Alabama, getting only 36.5% of the vote. By contrast, Trump (who of course had the advantage of incumbency that Tuberville did not have) got 62.1% of the vote. Hence, Jones lost AL by 20.4%, whereas Biden lost by 25.6%, meaning that Biden did 5.2% worse overall in AL than Jones. If you only consider the % of the vote each of these Democratic candidates got, Biden did 3.2% worse than Jones. Furthermore, Jones got 913,999 votes, while Biden only got 843,473 in AL, meaning that Jones got 70,526 or about 8.4% more votes in AL than Biden.
• Alaska: Democrat Al Gross got 41.3% of the vote in Alaska, compared to 54.0% for Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan. Biden, who was also running against a Republican incumbent, did slightly better than Gross, receiving 43.0% of the vote in Alaska. By contrast, Trump did slightly worse than Sullivan, getting 53.1% of the vote. Hence, Gross lost AK by 12.7%, whereas Biden lost by 10.1%, meaning that Biden did 2.6% better overall in AK than Gross. Furthermore, Biden got 153,551 votes in AK, while Gross only got 145,890, meaning that Biden got 7,661 or about 5.3% more votes in AK than Gross.
• Arizona: Democrat Mark Kelly got 51.2% of the vote in Arizona, compared to 48.8% for incumbent Republican Martha McSally. Biden got 49.4% of the vote in Arizona, meaning he did slightly worse than Kelly. By contrast, Trump did (very) slightly better than McSally, getting about 49.1% of the vote. Overall, Kelly won AZ by 2.4%, while Biden won it by only 0.3%, meaning that Kelly did 2.1% better than Biden in AZ. If you only consider the % of the vote each of these Democratic candidates got, Kelly did 1.8% better than Biden. Furthermore, Kelly got 1,716,467 votes, while Biden only got 1,672,143 votes in AZ, meaning that Kelly got 44,324 or about 2.7% more votes in AZ than Biden.
• Colorado: Democrat John Hickenlooper got 53.5% of the vote in Colorado, compared to 44.2% for incumbent Republican Cory Gardner. Biden got 55.4% of the vote in Colorado, meaning he did slightly better than Hickenlooper. By contrast, Trump did noticeably worse than Gardner, getting about 41.9% of the vote. Overall, Biden won CO by 13.5%, while Hickenlooper won it by only 9.3%, meaning that Biden did about 4.2% better than Hickenlooper in CO. If you only consider the % of the vote each of these Democratic candidates got, Biden did 1.9% better than Hickenlooper. Furthermore, Biden got 1,803,941 votes in CO, while Hickenlooper only got 1,730,739 votes, meaning that Biden got 73,202 or about 4.2% more votes in CO than Hickenlooper.
• Delaware: Biden got 58.8% of the vote in Delaware, compared to 39.8% for Trump. Incumbent Democratic senator Chris Coons got 59.4% of the vote, compared to 37.9% for Republican Lauren Witzke. Therefore, Biden did 0.6% worse than Coons, while Trump did 1.9% better than Witzke. Looking at margins, Coons won Delaware by 21.5%, while Biden did so by 19%, meaning that Biden did about 2.5% worse than Coons in the state overall. However, Biden got 296,268 votes in DE, while Coons only got 291,804 votes, meaning that Biden got 4,464 or about 1.5% more votes in DE than Coons.
• Georgia: Biden got 49.50% of the vote in Georgia, compared to 49.25% for Trump. Democratic Senate candidate Jon Ossoff got 47.95% of the vote, compared to 49.73% for incumbent Republican David Perdue. Therefore, Biden did 1.55% better than Ossoff, while Trump did 0.48% worse than Perdue. (I will be ignoring the other Senate race in Georgia because there were so many candidates each getting a large chunk of the vote, making it clearly fundamentally different from the presidential or other Senate race.) Overall, Biden won Georgia by 0.25%, while Ossoff lost the original round of voting by 1.78%, meaning that Biden did 2.03% better than Ossoff in GA. Furthermore, Biden got 2,474,507 votes in GA, but Ossoff only got 2,374,519, meaning that Biden got 99,988 or about 4.2% more votes in GA than Ossoff.
• Idaho: Biden got 33.1% of the vote in Idaho, compared to 63.8% for Trump. Democratic Senate candidate Paulette Jordan got 33.2% of the vote, compared to 62.6% of the vote for incumbent Republican Senator Jim Risch. Therefore, Biden got 0.1% less of the vote in Idaho than Jordan, and Trump got 1.2% more of the vote than Risch. Overall, Biden lost Idaho by 30.7%, but Jordan lost by 29.4%, meaning that Biden did 1.3% worse than Jordan in Idaho. However, Jordan received 285,864 votes in Idaho, whereas Biden received 287,021, meaning that Biden recieved 1,157 or 0.4% more votes in Idaho than Jordan.
• Illinois: Biden got 57.5% of the vote in Illinois, compared to 40.5% for Trump. Incumbent Democratic Senate candidate Dick Durbin got 54.9% of the vote, compared to 38.9% of the vote for Republican candidate Mark Curran. Therefore, Biden got 2.6% more of the vote than Durbin, while Trump got 1.6% more of the vote than Curran. Overall, Biden won Illinois by 17.0%, while Durbin won by 16.0%, meaning Biden did 1.0% better than Durbin in Illinois. Biden got 3,471,915 votes, but Durbin only got 3,278,930, meaning that Biden got 192,985 or about 5.9% more votes in IL than Durbin.
• Iowa: Biden got 44.9% of the vote in Iowa, compared to 53.1% for Trump. Democratic Senate candidate Theresa Greenfield got 45.2% of the vote, compared to 51.8% for Republican incumbent Joni Ernst. Therefore, Biden did 0.3% worse than Greenfield, whereas Trump did 1.3% better than Ernst. Overall, Biden lost Iowa by 8.2%, while Greenfield lost it by 6.6%, meaning that Biden did 1.6% worse than Greenfield in Iowa. However, while Biden got 759,061 votes in IA, Greenfield only got 754,859, meaning that Biden got 4,202 or about 0.6% more votes in IA than Greenfield.
• Kansas: Biden got 41.5% of the vote in Kansas, compared to 56.1% for Trump. Democratic Senate candidate Barbara Bollier got 41.8% of the vote, compared to 53.2% for Republican incumbent Roger Marshall. This means that Biden did 0.3% worse than Bollier, and Trump did 2.9% better than Marshall. Overall, Biden lost Kansas by 14.6%, while Bollier lost it by 11.4%, meaning that Biden did 3.2% worse overall than Bollier. Biden got 570,323 votes in KS, while Bollier got 571,530 votes, meaning that Bollier got 1,207 or about 0.2% more votes than Biden.
• Kentucky: Biden got 36.2% of the vote in Kentucky, compared to 62.1% for Trump. Democratic Senate candidate Amy McGrath got 38.2% of the vote, compared to 57.8% for Republican incumbent Mitch McConnell. This means that Biden did 2.0% worse than McGrath, whereas Trump did 4.3% better than McConnell. Overall, Biden lost Kentucky by 25.9%, while McGrath lost it by 19.6%, meaning that Biden did 6.3% worse overall than McGrath. Similarly, McGrath got 816,184 votes in KY, but Biden only got 772,474, meaning that McGrath got 43,710 or about 5.7% more votes than Biden.
• Louisiana: Biden got 39.9% of the vote in Louisiana, compared to 58.5% for Trump. The five Democratic candidates (Perkins, Edwards, Pierce, Knight, and Wenstrup) combined got 35.3% of the vote, compared to the two Republican candidates (Cassidy and Murphy) who combined got 61.2% of the vote. (This election was unusual because so many candidates from both parties were running at the same time, so I think it can only be compared to the presidential race if you combine all candidates of the same party.) This means that Biden did 4.6% better than all the Democrats collectively in Louisiana, whereas Trump did 2.7% worse. Overall, Biden lost Louisiana by 18.6%, while all the Democrats combined lost it by 25.9%, meaning that Biden did 7.3% better than the Democrats combined overall. Similarly, all the Democratic Senate candidates combined got 14,454+36,962+55,710+229,814+394,049 = 730,989 votes in LA, but Biden got 856,034, meaning that Biden got 125,045 or about 17.1% more votes than all the Democratic Senate candidates combined.
• Maine: Biden got 53.1% of the vote in Maine, compared to 44.0% for Trump. Democratic Senate candidate Sara Gideon got 42.4% of the vote, compared to 51.0% for Republican incumbent Susan Collins. This means Biden did 10.7% better than Gideon, while Trump did 7.0% worse than Collins. Overall, Biden won Maine by 9.1%, but Gideon lost it by 8.6%, meaning that Biden did 17.7% better than Gideon overall. Similarly, Biden got 435,072 votes in ME, but Gideon only got 347,223, meaning that Biden got 87,849 or about 25.3% more votes in ME than Gideon.
• Massachusetts: Biden got 65.6% of the vote in Massachusetts, compared to 32.1% for Trump. Democratic Senator Ed Markey got 66.2% of the vote, compared to 33.0% for Republican challenger Kevin O’Connor. This means Biden did 0.6% worse than Markey, but Trump did 0.9% worse than O’Connor. Overall, Biden won Massachusetts by 33.5%, but Markey only won it by 33.2%, meaning that Biden did 0.3% better than Markey overall. Similarly, Biden received 2,382,202 votes in MA, whereas Markey received 2,357,809 votes, meaning that Biden received 24,393 or about 1.0% more votes statewide than did Markey.
• Michigan: Biden got 50.6% of the vote in Michigan, compared to 47.8% for Trump. Democratic Senator Gary Peters got 49.9% of the vote, compared to 48.2% for Republican candidate John James. This means Biden did 0.7% better than Peters, whereas Trump did 0.4% worse than James. Overall, Biden won Michigan by 2.8%, but Peters only won by 1.7%, meaning that Biden did 1.1% better than Peters overall. Similarly, Biden received 2,804,040 votes in MI, but Peters only received 2,734,568 votes, meaning that Biden received 69,472 or about 2.5% more votes statewide than did Peters.
• Minnesota: Biden got 52.4% of the vote in Minnesota, compared to 45.3% for Trump. Democratic Senator Tina Smith got 48.8% of the vote, compared to 43.5% for Republican candidate Jason Lewis. This means Biden did 3.6% better than Smith, while Trump did 1.8% better than Lewis. Overall, Biden won Minnesota by 7.1%, while Smith only won by 5.3%, meaning that Biden did 1.8% better than Smith overall. Similarly, Biden received 1,717,077 votes in MN, but Smith only received 1,566,522 votes, meaning that Biden received 150,555 or about 9.6% more votes statewide than did Smith.
• Mississippi: Biden got 41.0% of the vote in Mississippi, compared to 57.5% for Trump. Democratic Senate candidate Mike Espy got 44.1% of the vote, compared to 54.1% for incumbent Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith. This means Biden did 3.1% worse than Espy, while Trump did 3.4% better than Hyde-Smith. Overall, Biden lost Mississippi by 16.5%, but Espy only lost it by 10.0%, meaning that Espy did 6.5% better than Biden. Similarly, Biden received 539,398 votes in MS, but Espy received 578,691 votes, meaning that Espy received 39,293 or about 7.3% more votes statewide than did Biden.
• Montana: Biden got 40.4% of the vote in Montana, compared to 56.7% for Trump. Democratic Senate candidate Steve Bullock got 45.0% of the vote, compared to 55.0% for incumbent Republican Senator Steve Daines. This means Biden did 4.6% worse than Bullock, while Trump did 1.7% better than Daines. Overall, Biden lost Montana by 16.3%, but Bullock only lost it by 10.0%, meaning that Bullock did 6.3% better than Biden. Similarly, Bullock got 272,463 votes in MT, but Biden only got 244,786, meaning that Bullock received 27,677 or about 11.3% more votes statewide than did Biden.
• Nebraska: Biden got 39.2% of the vote in Nebraska, compared to 58.2% for Trump. Democratic Senate candidate Chris Janicek got 23.2% of the vote, compared to 59.6% for incumbent Republican Senator Ben Sasse (the remaining 17.2% of the vote went to either write-ins or the Libertarian candidate). This means Janicek did 16.0% worse than Biden, while Sasse did 1.4% better than Trump. Overall, Biden lost Nebraska by 19.0%, but Janicek lost by 36.4%, meaning that Biden did 17.4% better than Janicek. Similarly, Biden got 374,583 votes in NE, but Janicek only got 227,191, meaning that Biden got 147,392 or 64.9% more votes statewide than did Janicek.
• New Hampshire: Biden got 52.8% of the vote in New Hampshire, compared to 45.5% for Trump. Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen got 56.7% of the vote, compared to 41.0% for Republican challenger Corky Messner. This means Shaheen did 3.9% better than Biden, while Messner did 4.5% worse than Trump. Overall, Biden won New Hampshire by 7.3%, but Shaheen won by 15.7%, meaning that Biden did 8.4% worse than Shaheen. Similarly, Biden got 424,921 votes in NH, but Shaheen got 450,778, meaning that Shaheen got 25,857 or 6.1% more votes statewide than did Biden.
• New Jersey: Biden got 57.1% of the vote in New Jersey, compared to 41.3% for Trump. Incumbent Democratic Senator Cory Booker got 57.2% of the vote, compared to 40.9% for Republican challenger Rikin Mehta. This means Booker did 0.1% better than Biden, while Mehta did 0.4% worse than Trump. Overall, Biden won New Jersey by 15.8%, but Booker won it by 16.3%, meaning that Booker did 0.5% better than Biden. However, while Biden received received 2,608,335 votes in NJ, Booker only received 2,541,178, meaning that Biden got 67,157 or 2.6% more votes statewide than did Booker.
• New Mexico: Biden 54.3%, Trump 43.5%. Lujan (D) 51.7% vs. Ronchetti (R) 45.6%. Overall, Biden won NM by 10.8%, but Lujan only won by 6.1%, meaning Biden did 4.7% better than Lujan. Biden got 501,614 votes in NM, but Lujan only got 474,483, meaning Biden got 27,131 or 5.7% more votes statewide than did Lujan.
• North Carolina: Biden 48.6%, Trump 49.9%. Cunningham (D) 46.9%, Tillis (R) 48.7%. Overall, Biden lost NC by 1.3%, but Cunningham lost by 1.8%, meaning Biden did 0.5% better than Cunningham. Biden got 2,684,292 votes in NC, while Cunningham only got 2,569,965, meaning Biden got 114,327 or 4.4% more votes statewide than did Cunningham.
• Oklahoma: Biden 32.3%, Trump 65.4%. Broyles (D) 32.8%, Inhofe (R) 62.9%. Overall, Biden lost OK by 33.1%, but Broyles lost by only 30.1%, meaning Biden did 3.0% worse than Broyles. Biden got 503,890 votes in OK, but Broyles got 509,763 votes, meaning Broyles got 5,873 or 1.2% more votes statewide than did Biden.
• Oregon: Biden 56.5%, Trump 40.4%. Merkley (D) 56.9%, Perkins (R) 39.3%. Overall, Biden won OR by 16.1%, but Merkley won by 17.6%, meaning Biden did 1.5% worse than Merkley. However, Biden got 1,340,383 votes in OR, but Merkley only got 1,321,047, meaning Biden got 19,336 or 1.5% more votes statewide than did Merkley.
• Rhode Island: Biden 59.4%, Trump 38.6%. Reed (D) 66.6%, Waters (R) 33.4%. Overall, Biden won RI by 20.8%, Reed won by 33.2%, meaning Biden did 12.4% worse than Reed. Similarly, Biden got 307,486 votes in RI, but Reed got 328,574 votes, meaning Reed got 21,088 or 6.9% more votes statewide than did Biden.
• South Carolina: Biden 43.4%, Trump 55.1%. Harrison (D) 44.2%, Graham (R) 54.5%. Overall, Biden lost SC by 11.7%, but Harrison only lost by 10.3%, meaning Biden did 1.4% worse than Harrison. Similarly, Biden got 1,091,541 in SC, but Harrison got 1,110,828 votes, meaning Harrison got 19,287 or 1.8% more votes statewide than did Biden.
• South Dakota: Biden 35.6%, Trump 61.8%. Ahlers (D) 34.3%, Rounds (R) 65.7%. Overall, Biden lost SD by 26.2%, but Ahlers lost by 31.4%, meaning Biden did 5.2% better than Ahlers. Similarly, Biden got 150,471 votes in SD, but Ahlers only got 143,987, meaning Biden got 6,484 or 4.5% more votes statewide than did Ahlers.
• Tennessee: Biden 37.4%, Trump 60.7%. Bradshaw (D) 35.2%, Hagerty 62.2%. Overall, Biden lost TN by 23.3%, but Bradshaw lost by 27.0%, meaning Biden did 3.7% better overall than did Bradshaw. Similarly, Biden got 1,143,913 votes in TN, but Bradshaw only got 1,040,691, meaning Biden got 103,222 or 9.9% more votes statewide than did Bradshaw.
• Texas: Biden 46.5%, Trump 52.1%. Cornyn (R) 53.5%, Hegar (D) 43.9%. Overall, Biden lost TX by 5.6%, but Hegar lost by 9.6%, meaning Biden did 4.0% better overall than Hegar. Similarly, Biden got 5,259,126 votes in TX, but Hegar only got 4,888,764, meaning Biden got 370,362 or 7.6% more votes statewide than did Hegar.
• Virginia: Biden 54.1%, Trump 44.0%. Warner (D) 56.0%, Gade (R) 44.0%. Overall, Biden won VA by 10.1%, but Warner won by 12.0%, meaning Biden did 1.9% worse than Warner. Similarly, Biden got 2,413,568 votes in VA, but Warner got 2,466,500, meaning Warner got 52,932 or 2.2% more votes statewide than did Biden.
• West Virginia: Biden 29.7%, Trump 68.6%. Capito (R) 70.3%, Swearengin (D) 27.0%. Overall, Biden lost WV by 38.9%, but Swearengin lost by 43.3%, meaning Biden did 4.4% better than Swearengin. Similarly, Biden got 235,984 votes in WV, but Swearengin only got 210,309, meaning Biden got 25,675 or 12.2% more votes statewide than did Swearengin.
• Wyoming: Biden 26.6%, Trump 69.9%. Lummis (R) 73.1%, Ben-David (D) 26.9%. Overall, Biden lost WY by 43.3%, but Ben-David lost by 46.2%, meaning Biden did 2.9% better than Ben-David. Similarly, Biden got 73,491 votes in WY, but Ben-David only got 72,766, meaning Biden got 725 or 1.0% more votes in WY than did Ben-David.